Factors Influencing a Currency Pair Exchange Rate
Introduction
The exchange rate refers to the value of the US dollar against the values of currencies of other countries. Such a rate helps determine how much we pay for imported goods and services and how much we receive for what we export, among other things. When the value of the US dollar drops, imports become more expensive, and we tend to reduce the volume of our imports. Simultaneously, other countries will pay LESS for some of our products and that will tend to boost export sales. If imports and exports are a substantial part of a country's economy, as is the case with Canada, the exchange rate plays a particularly important role in our economy. The exchange rate between two countries' currencies is particularly important if the two countries are heavily involved in trade.
What factors affect an exchange rate?
A country's exchange rate is typically affected by the supply and demand for that country's currency in international exchange markets. This is typically known as a floating exchange rate. If demand, for say dollars, exceeds supply, then the value of the dollar will go up. If however, the supply of dollars exceeds demand, then its value will go down. A huge amount of money is bought and sold on international exchange markets for many different currencies.
Several factors influence the supply of, and demand for, a given country's currency.
If INTEREST rates are HIGHER in, say, the US than in other countries, then investors WILL choose to invest in the US, increasing demand for the dollar, provided that the expected rate of inflation is not higher in the US than among our trading partners. If INTEREST rates are LOWER in the US than in other countries, investors will choose NOT to invest in the US, decreasing demand for the dollar.
If the US INFLATION rate is HIGHER, investors are LESS likely to prefer the US -even with higher interest rates- because of the expectation that the value of the dollar will be ERODED by inflation. If our INFLATION rate is LOWER, investors are MORE likely to prefer the US, because there will be NO expectation that the value of the dollar will erode.
Trade balance also has an effect on a country's currency. If world prices for what a country exports rise in comparison with the cost of that country's imports, that country will be earning more for its exports than it pays for its imports. The more demand there will be for that country's currency, the better the deal becomes. If investors are confident that the US economy will be strong, they will be MORE likely to buy American assets, pushing UP the dollar's value. If investors are not so confident that the economy will be strong, they will be LESS likely to buy the country's assets, pushing the dollar's value DOWN.
Joshua Kunken is Chief Currency Analyst for ForeignMarketWatch.com
Latest News
Currency Trading Market Conditions Remain Challenging: Breakout ... Daily FX, NY - Sharp US Dollar gains have produced profits in several of our currency trading strategies on the week, and a continuation of US Dollar strength would make ... US Dollar Forecast to Rally Against Euro, British Pound, Fall ... |
 Voice of America | Treasury’s Lead Role in China in Flux New York Times, United States - Besides, some noted, China’s currency, by maintaining its peg to the dollar, has risen in relation to the currencies of other trading partners because the ... Yuan's Fall Watched Ahead of US-China Summit China hopes talks with US boost coordination Paulson Seeks to Broaden Access to China |
Stocks drubbed at open CNNMoney.com - US crude for January delivery tumbled $3.46 to $50.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In currency trading, the dollar fell against the yen and ... |
 Maktoob | Yen Strengthens as Manufacturing Slump Weakens Yuan, Ruble Bloomberg - Bank Rossii, which manages the currency against a basket of dollars and euros to mitigate the effect of currency swings, widened the ruble’s trading band to ... Dollar Rises as Global Manufacturing and Stock Markets Plunge Down Is Dollar's December Direction Yen Extends Gains as Signs of Global Recession Sap Carry Trade |
Yuan Falls to One-Month Low as China Seeks to Shore Up Economy Bloomberg - “The central bank may want to test the market’s response to the possibility of a weaker yuan, but most likely it will keep the currency stable till the end ... Yuan tumbles to end at bottom of band vs dollar Yuan posts record low against dollar Rate cut sees yuan decline |
 New York Times | Some Nations That Spurned the Euro Reconsider New York Times, United States - After turmoil in the currency markets nearly destroyed the currencies of Iceland and Poland, the two countries are rethinking their opposition to the euro. ... |
GLOBAL MARKETS-Grim economic outlook pummels stocks, oil slides guardian.co.uk, UK - ... also lifting the dollar, so it's possible the dollar will get a bit of a bid out of this, but currency trading is going to be choppy," Reid added. ... |
AU Preview: Q3 GDP Should be Bo... ForexTV.com, NY - Forex (or FX or off-exchange foreign currency futures and options) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. ... |
Ruble Plunge Prompts Doubling of Reserve Spending, Survey Shows Bloomberg - Bank Rossii buys and sells foreign currency to keep the ruble within a trading band against a basket comprised 55 percent of dollars and rest in euros. ... Russian Stocks, Ruble Drop as Production Falls More Than in ’98 |
China's currency falls by record against US dollar MarketWatch - The yuan eased to 6.8848 against the dollar, falling to its 0.5% trading limit, its lowest level since May. Against the dollar, the Chinese currency was at ... Chinese market closes higher Manufacturing Contracted At The Fastest Pace In 25 Years During ... |
Resources
-
Simple Forex Solution.
eBook on Currency Trading.
-
Forex Trading Strategy
How to trade Currency pairs
-
Global Forex Currency Trading Portal
Global Forex Currency Trading Portal, Free Forex News, Research, Trading Systems, Strategies and Education
-
Forex Trading Tips - Learn how to trade EUR/USD, USD/CAD or any other major Currency pair.
Stock index Trading strategy for beginning and experienced traders alike.
-
Become a High Earning Currency Trader
Become A High Earning Currency Trader by Tapping a Few Buttons on your PC
-
Forex :: FXTrader.NET - The professional Forex Trader - Forex Managed Accounts for private and insti
Forex Managed Accounts Forex Currency Trading Services Forecast Products
-
Get Rich Trading E-Currency! Get The Free Ecurrency Report!
Instantly Cash In On Your Share Of This Multi Million Dollar Industry With Your Very Own, Shockingly Explosive Ecurrency Trading Business.
-
Currency Exchange Profits Video Training
Currency exchange profits | Video training for e-Currency Trading
-
Day Trade Forex System:
The ULTIMATE Step-by-Step Online Currency Trading Course
Day Trade Forex Systems: Online Currency Trading Course, Advanced Trading Signal System and the Euro Fractal Trading System. Forex traders using our forex advanced signal system with specific entry and exit strategies can win trade after trade in the for
-
Foriegn Currency Trading | Online Forex Trading | Forex Trading System
Online Forex Trading System Ebook