Where is the Market Going?
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next year, well I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next month, well again, I may as well flip a coin, because I still don't know.
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next week, AGAIN, I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.
And if you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time tomorrow, I am sorry, but I JUST DON'T KNOW!
But? if you ask me whether the market will move up or down in next few minutes, well I will have a definite opinion. Why? Because if I can see the CURRENT state of buying and selling in the market NOW, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and moments.
My prediction will not be based on some secret formula; it will not be based on some esoteric sounding indicator, nor on some complex mathematical equation. No, it will be based on my evaluation of the current state of supply and demand.
Predicting the long-term movements of the markets is a guessing game. All we have to go on is the past; all we can reasonably do is assume that what has happened in the past will continue to happen in the future. Basically that is what trend following is, making the assumption that the past equals the future.
In my trading world, the only law that works is that of supply and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers then the market will go up; and if there are more sellers than buyers the market will go down.
It matters not one iota the whys and wherefores of the buyers and the sellers. It does not matter that a trader has chosen to sell now because the 9 period moving average has crossed the 14 period; or because he has just lost his shirt; or because he is taking a profit; or because he is just plain bored.
No, I don't care why a trader has entered a buy or a sell order, I just care that they have, by their act, added to either the buying or the selling pressure.
Malcolm Robinson
LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader
InstinctiveTrader.com
Latest News
Currency Trading Using Bollinger Bands Corsavoo.com, France - Bollinger Bands are a technical tool used to determine whether a currency pair is high or low relative to its recent trading history. ... |
![]() Irish Independent | Currency Trading’s Growing Asian Hub Wall Street Journal Blogs, NY - A decade ago, some government officials in Southeast Asia lambasted currency traders, blaming them for driving down the value of many Asian currencies. ... Asian stocks rise, led by exporters, industrial firms Hong Kong, Tokyo Lead Asian Markets Up Asian markets mixed in early trade |
![]() Sify | Rupee hammered on Day 1 of futures trading on NSE domain-B, India - Daily currency trading volume on the spot and futures market together was around $48 billion in 2007-08, according to Reserve Bank of India estimates. ... Dealers expect a slow start to currency futures trading Trading in currency futures take off amid high volumes Chidambaram launches trading in currency futures |
![]() Wall Street Journal | Dollar Falls Against Yen as Personal Spending Slows in July Bloomberg - The greenback posted its biggest monthly advance against the euro since the European currency began trading in 1999 and its longest gain versus the yen ... Daily currency analysis - Aug 29 Dollar Rises on Speculation Oil Decline to Bolster US Economy Dollar Falls Against Yen as Personal Spending Slows in July |
Maktoob | Euro May Climb for Second Day on Weber's Comments, Crude Oil Bloomberg - The currency has dropped 5.9 percent against the dollar in August, the biggest monthly decline since the European currency began trading in 1999. ... US dollar may be up, but this is no rebound Our weekly round up of currency movements Currency Focus |
Stronger dollar raises risks for cross-border M&A MarketWatch - ... believe was its bottom against the European currency. On July 15, the euro rose to $1.6038, its highest level since it began trading in January 1999. ... |
![]() Business Intelligence Middle East (press release) | It may be too soon to exit oil-dollar bet Reuters - For over a year, one of the main themes in currency and commodity markets has been to short -- or sell -- the dollar as US economic health looked suspect, ... METALS STOCKS Gold falls for third day as dollar rallies against ... Green (back) Day: Holiday Gold Falls First Day in Four After Oil Dips, Dollar Advances |
Currency Trading: The Secrets to Ultimate Market Success 3x24 - Your Newspaper and News Magazine, Germany - by Salvador Paez With the evolution of technology, currency trading and access to Forex capital markets has been more accessible. ... |
![]() Sify | Currency futures debut high on note, low on volumes Daily News & Analysis, India - The exchange has said nearly 300 members, including 11 banks, have registered for currency trading, but first day volumes averaged at less than Rs 1 crore ... FAQs on currency futures NSE Currency Futures to start from Aug 29 |
US dollar index on track for weekly, monthly advance MarketWatch - "The dollar shot higher following the much friendlier data releases, as both Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment beat consensus expectations," wrote currency ... Gold slightly higher as dollar falls, crude rises Metal falls nearly $90 in August, the biggest monthly loss in 25 years Gold edges higher on rising crude prices |
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