Risk and Reward
If you are doing your own investing in the stock market, what would be the first question you would ask yourself before you make any trade or investment? If your answer is how fundamentally sound the stock is, or whether the stock just broke out of a trading range on a chart, or the fact that the stock has gone down 50% in the last 6 months, or whether the volatility is low now so it is a good time to buy or sell, then you are probably on the road to ruin. These strategies have nothing in common with each other and there are all kinds of different criteria that I did not mention that have nothing in common with each other. However no matter what type of strategy you use to make your investment decisions, there is only one crucial question that must be asked before you pull the trigger and make the trade. That is, what is my risk and what is my reward on this trade. Even if you are going to buy a stock and hold it for a long time, you still have to be aware of your risk and your reward. Why? Because the entire stock market may be here for the rest of your life, any one stock might not be. You think, that is okay I diversified a lot so I don't need to know risk and reward. Wrong.
Diversification is great, but you should still be aware of the risk and reward because even indexes of the entire market have a risk and a reward, depending on the length of time invested. Point of entrance, exit, stops, and diversification, are all important things, but they by themselves are not risk and reward. You have to ask yourself how much am I risking, and what my potential reward is. How much are the important words
Okay how do I do that? Well first you must define your investment strategy. If you want to buy and hold what exactly does that mean. Hold for 5 years, 10 years, or forever? What is forever? If you are 20 years old forever is different than if you are 55. Also if you are buy and holding, is forever when you stop investing or is it when you start withdrawing money? These are important questions that must be answered specifically. You might say it doesn't matter because I will be diversified with index funds for the next 15 years. Okay let me ask these questions. Are you 100% invested at all times? Do you know the maximum drawdown (the largest loss from the index high and low in any 15 year period) for the index you invested in? Are you able to financially withstand that kind of drawdown? Alright, I know these are a lot of questions and all you want to do is invest in an index mutual fund for the next 15 years and forget about it.
Well I am going to say right now that if you think you are taking very little risk on 15 years you are wrong. If you bought the S&P 500 in a 100% position in 1965 and needed the money in 1980 you would have made no return on investment and had a 40% drawdown from 1969 to 1975. If you look at the period of 1930 to 1955, a 25 year period it is even worse. I know it's the great depression and things are different today. Don't assume anything. I am not saying that you should not invest. I am just saying that there is a risk and a reward. Every time you trade whether it is once a week or once every 15 years, that trade has a chance of winning and a chance of losing. Also, when you buy a managed mutual fund for 15 years you are not buying and holding. You are buying and selling but you are paying a professional to do it for you. He or she will have draw downs in the fund and hopefully he or she will be looking at risk and reward for you. Even an index fund held for 15 years is not truly buy and hold because the indexes change on a yearly basis. Some stocks come in the index and some stocks go out of the index. The longer the time span, say 40-55 years, the bigger the risk but the bigger the reward. Also the longer the time span, the longer you can withstand a large drawdown if it comes.
Now what if you are trading stocks with an entry and an exit point already predefined; that is where do I get in and where do I get out. That strategy might be good but that is not risk and reward. The most important question is how much am I invested and how much do I get out. What is the % of risk on each stock position in the portfolio and what is the risk to the total portfolio. Let's take an example. You bought 100 shares IBM @50 for $5000 in a total portfolio of $200.000. You put a sell stop loss to sell all 100 shares if IBM goes to $40 / share. That means your risk on IBM is $10 / share or $1000. But your real risk to your portfolio is .5% or $1000 divided by $200,000. If you have a sell exit point of $100 then your reward on the stock would be 100% and the reward to your total portfolio was 2.5%. So your total risk to reward was 5 to 1. You could crunch numbers all day to make up formulas to fit your strategy, but the most important part is how much are you risking. Here are some general rules when it comes to risk:
Don't risk more than 2% on any given trade or idea. That doesn't matter if your strategy is technical or fundamental or discretionary. Risking 1% would be safer. Most large fund managers risk much less.
Diversify. Buying 1% risk on IBM and 1% on Dell and 1% on Hewlard Packard is a 3% risk because they all sell the same products
Don't risk more than 20% of your portfolio at any one time, 10% would be better. You have to have a way to quantify the greed factor or it might consume you and all your money at the same time.
In my own portfolios I try not to risk more than 7% on an initial portfolio position.
Initial risk and on going risk can be two different risks. As a trade becomes profitable the amount of at risk at any moment in time can be a variable not a constant. That would allow for letting profits run while cutting losses short. However, making your initial risk a variable in most cases would be a disaster. Once initial risk is conceived it should never be increased. Greed may become the primary factor in increasing initial risk and that is always a fast track to increasing losses.
I hope that risk and reward become the primary strategy concern in your future investing and trading.
About The Author
John McKeon- pivate placement fund manager and owner of buypanic.com, an investment newsletter. I also have over 25 years experience in trading with a specialization in stock index trend following.
Latest News
 Xinhua | Microsoft's Ballmer to CES: keep investing in tech despite ... Scientific American - Las Vegas , NEV. -- In his first ever CES keynote, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer yesterday acknowledged the tough economic times, but urged companies not to ... Microsoft: the year ahead Microsoft releases Windows Server 2008 R2 beta Ballmer Offers Tempered Optimism in CES Keynote |
 Wealth Bulletin | How to avoid a Madoff fund San Francisco Chronicle, USA - Feeder-funds (hedge funds or funds that do all their investing through another fund) and funds-of- funds sold investment services to individuals, ... Fund-of-Hedge Funds Lacked Technology to Avoid Madoff Losses D Bank declined offers to invest with Madoff |
 Express from The Washington Post | The Best Investment Values in a Decade Motley Fool - These days, we're presented with what Ron Muhlenkamp a few months ago called "the best investment values we've seen in a decade." Obviously, the market has ... You Are About to Make a Bad Investment The Flight to Safety Could Burn You Wednesday's Biggest Stock Stars |
 Dividend.com | Billionaire investor places next supermarket bet MarketWatch - Yucaipa's investment funds have been aggressive buyers of Whole Foods shares since Nov. 24, spending a net $98 million to amass the stake. ... Activist shareholder buys 7 percent stake in Whole Foods Billionaire investor Burkle bets on Whole Foods |
Thomas, McNerney & Partners Promotes Three Members of Its ... PR Newswire (press release), NY - Thomas, McNerney & Partners is a health care venture capital firm with approximately $600 million under management, focused on investing in life science and ... |
US investment in IT would create jobs, group says ITworld.com, MA - by Grant Gross A US$30 billion investment by the US government in broadband, health IT and smart energy grids would create or retain nearly a million jobs, ... New ITIF Report Documents How $30 Billion IT Stimulus Package ... $30B IT Stimulus Will Create Almost 1 Million Jobs |
Appleseed Fund Ranked by Lipper as Top Performing Midcap Value ... CNNMoney.com - "Since the Appleseed Fund's inception, we've shown it's possible to outperform the market by investing in companies with strong sustainability records and ... |
New T. Rowe Price mutual fund eyes global investment Bizjournals.com, NC - T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is launching a new mutual fund seeking reward amid the risks of global fixed-income investing. The Strategic Income Fund will ... |
 Globe and Mail | Learning from Madoff's Ponzi scheme WKOW-TV.com, WI - Another important lesson from the Madoff Ponzi scandal is that investing money successfully also requires some homework on your part. "If you're investing ... Video: Congress Sounds Off Against SEC in Madoff Affair Congress Demands SEC Speed Madoff Inquiry to Improve Oversight Re-defining Risk: 5 Investment Rules for 2009 |
Uma Thurman No Help to Arpad Busson in Madoff Fraud’s Nightmare Bloomberg - In mid-December, EIM disclosed it was one of at least a dozen funds of funds caught up in the massive alleged fraud perpetrated by New York investment ... |
Resources
-
No Money Down - Creative Real Estate Investing!
Learn how to control real estate Without credit checks and no money down! You can Buy With No Credit!
-
real estate foreclosures- home69
Proven real estate Investing course specializing in foreclosures and pre-forclosures.
-
Real Estate Investing
How To Start And Run Your Own outrageously Profitable Fixer-Upper Business In As Little As 45 Days, even If You Can
-
Foreclosures - Real Estate Investing - Short Sales.
Learn about foreclosures and real estate Investing techniques like short sales and subject to financing
-
Online Trading for Financial Freedom - stock daytrading strategy.
Stock index trading strategy for beginning and experienced traders alike.
-
Real Estate Investing - Foreclosures
How To Start And Run Your Own outrageously Profitable Fixer-Upper Business In As Little As 45 Days, even If You Can
-
Real Estate Investing Course for Profits in Investing
Real estate Investing course reveals proven real estate Investing strategies using Lease Options and Creative Financing where you can earn big money Investing in real estate with no down and no credit
-
Make money stock trading, day trading, Investing and trading options like the pros!
Turn $200 into $4,630 in 30 days by trading options online from your home PC. Step by step instructions for novices or investment pros. Make money stock trading, day trading, Investing and trading options like the pros!
-
Make real money Investing in real estate by Lou Vukas
Lou Vukas gives you the insider secrets to making real money in real estate regardless of your credit, finances or location at realestatefortunes.com.
-
Real Estate Investing
eBook on Real Estate Investing and Real Estate Marketing